Has Christmas Come Early

[winbet]

Baltimore +8 :nuts:
Baltimore M/L

Will post my reasons later( no time at mo, have to work to recoup my losses to date) but will leave 2 points for now.

1) Remember Denver playing The Colts this time last year. "Almost printing money" one Colts backer posted on here.

2) I have had inside info from a source close to The Colts that Manning had a No 2 straight after the Houston game, before facing the media. I am realiably informed ( my sources are at the cutting edge of the Las Vegas coal-face) that in his career, in Manning's following game, he is 0-21.

Not wishing to be accused of plagiarism along with being an Idiot, I have highlighted where I attained this piece. First time I have come across this site. Seems to be a watered down version of our old friend Sixth Sense, wonder how he has done this year.

http://www.drbobsports.com/football/football.cfm

The Colts’ super offense (6.9 yards per play against teams that allow a combined 5.6 yppl on defense) goes up against a good Ravens’ defense that’s allowed only 4.5 yppl this season (to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense), and I’ll lean with Baltimore plus the points. While the Colts’ offense rates higher, it is interesting to note that the Ravens’ held the other two most prolific attacks in the league, Kansas City and Philadelphia, to 5.0 yppl each and an average of just 21 points. Baltimore should get something going on the ground this week with Jamal Lewis healthy again versus a soft Colts’ defensive front that’s given up 4.6 ypr this season (to teams that average 4.3 ypr on offense). Indy is also 0.3 yards per pass play below average defending the pass, so Kyle Boller shouldn’t suck as badly as he normally does (4.5 yppp this season, against teams that allow 6.0 yppp). While my math model projects a 90 yards edge for the Colts from the line of scrimmage in this game, Baltimore has a 3.3 points edge in special teams and my math model favors Indy by only 6 points. The Ravens also apply to a very strong 61-14-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on teams that run the ball and defend well when facing a team that is worse than average defending the run. My only issue is a 187-114-11 ATS statistical profile angle that favors the Colts in this game, but the technical analysis still favors Baltimore by 3 points overall and I’ll consider them a pretty solid opinion in this game with a profitable 55% chance of covering at +7 ½ points.


****
sorry win no links to tout services in posts thank you sir

 

[winbet]

I feel the mentality of the Teams coming into this game will be very important. While I expect The Colts to be fully focused after reaching the play-offs, it would be human nature for the 11 or so starters carrying injuries to have in the back of their minds, being available for them as a priority. As for The Ravens, this is the play-offs, as a loss here would mean no post season. They come into the game in the best shape injury wise this season and while I dont think that is an excuse for some of their bad play, I am sure the players will use it as a rallying cry. If the two Teams meet later on,things will probably pan out differently, but for this game The Ravens will bring an intensity that I dont think The Colts will match.

With all the Offense The Colts have had this year its easy to forget how desperate their defense is. Only twice in the last 10 games have they been successful against the run (Chicago & Oakland) whereas The Ravens have had 1 bad game with Lewis in the line-up. With a successful running game, The Ravens should score 21-24 pts and use up plenty of The Colts clock. Of course it will be The Ravens Defense which will dictate whether The Colts score 4 TDs + and beat the spread. There are differing opinions on this Forum as to their validity but I feel there is too much talent for it not to be good. The availability of Primetime is huge both physically and mentally in this game, without him the secondary would have trouble. He is not the player he was but he still has the swagger that I'm sure puts uncertainty in QB's minds.
So it appears this is a reality check for The Ravens D, if they are what they say they are then Baltimore will win this outright, hence betting the M/L and covering with the +8.

Best of luck this Week-end